TYLER, Texas (East Texas News) – East Texas has not escaped the recent economic slowdown, according to economist Dr. Ray Perryman, who unveiled his latest forecast to civic and business leaders on Thursday.
A native of Lindale and often regarded as the state’s unofficial economist, Perryman spoke to a crowd at the W.T. Brookshire Conference Center about the economy’s strengths and its challenges.
Perryman stated that many construction projects across the state, including in East Texas, have stalled due to a shortage of workers.
“There are projects all over the state right now, even here in East Texas, construction is basically paralyzed because they can’t secure workers,” Perryman said.
He attributed the issue to tighter immigration policies, noting that the effects reach beyond sectors such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality.
“About 25% of doctors and health care professionals are immigrants. If you look at leading tech companies, half of the engineers with doctoral degrees are immigrants,” Perryman said. “In other words, this isn’t a problem of low skills. It affects all sectors because we’re simply not producing the same number of people we used to.”
Perryman pointed to a decline in birth rates since 2007, meaning fewer people enter the labor market. The challenge is compounded by an aging population and a large wave of retirements.
“The longest-running economic advantage Texas has is the fact that we have a large pool of young people at a moment when the nation will face a labor shortage,” Perryman said. “And the biggest challenge we face is making sure we educate that workforce and turn it into a productive labor force for the future.”
Perryman asserted that East Texas is well positioned for future growth.
“I believe a lot of this comes down to the resilience and diversity we’ve intentionally fostered in Tyler-Smith County and the way we build our economy,” said Scott Martinez, chief executive of the Tyler Economic Development Council. “Healthcare and education, historically, have been remarkably resilient and have kept their employment levels.”
While some believe that the emerging artificial intelligence will eliminate jobs, Perryman argued that history shows there can be short-term drawbacks but long-term gains. “There was a time when people said computers would replace all jobs. Then robotics. And later, the Internet,” Perryman noted. “We can even go back to the invention of the wheel 5,500 years ago. There has never been a major invention for which that forecast wasn’t made.”
Regarding tariffs, Perryman contended that Texas has borne the brunt, noting that whenever trade is disrupted, Texas pays a steep price.
He forecasts substantial growth for Texas over the coming five years, outpacing the rest of the country. He also projects expansion around Tyler, where the health care and social services sector is expected to generate the most jobs, with more than 3,500 new positions.
