UT Tyler Professor Analyzes Rising Gas Prices Amid Growing Ukraine-Russia Tensions

February 4, 2026

TYLER, TX (EAST TEXAS NEWS) – Drivers are seeing gasoline prices rise across the country and here in East Texas.

“The one thing we know for sure about gasoline prices right now is that they’re going to go up,” said Dr. Harold Doty, professor of management at UT Tyler.

According to AAA, the national average on Wednesday for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.54, about 21 cents higher than a month ago and roughly 90 cents higher than a year ago. The Texas average for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.21.

Doty breaks down the price increases into short-term factors, structural pressures, and global tensions.

Short-term factors include: “The federal government slowed drilling permits, there was a refinery explosion in Louisiana recently, and that creates a bit of noise in the system, but that’s really not a big deal,” Doty said.

Doty said that structural factors driving higher gasoline prices include demand. Demand for gasoline is outpacing the pandemic-era supply. He noted that the shift from summer blends to winter gasoline blends will add about 10 cents per gallon. Finally, Doty said that inflation adds roughly 10 cents per gallon.

“We’ve been riding the perfect storm too hard, but right now with our gasoline reserves, that’s what’s happening,” Doty said. “The wildcard is the global market at this moment and the global political context, with Ukraine and Russia and a NATO response. No one knows what will happen there, but it isn’t going to be good for oil prices.”

Ernest LaFlure, head of Oil Technology Group, said that when crude prices rise, gasoline prices tend to move up as well.

With the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, “Russia is the second or third largest producer of oil and gas in the world. The fluctuations between Saudi Arabia and Russia are nearly equivalent in terms of the amount of oil and gas they produce,” LaFlure said.

So, when will the price uptick ease? “Oil markets come and oil markets go. It will dip again, dip again and we’ll enjoy it, and then it will rise again,” Doty said.

“The saddest thing of all is that I predict for most people they will pay more per gallon of gasoline in the coming months than they ever have in their lives,” Doty said.

Madelyn Carter

My name is Madelyn Carter, and I’m a Texas-born journalist with a passion for telling stories that connect communities. I’ve spent the past decade covering everything from small-town events to major statewide issues, always striving to give a voice to those who might otherwise go unheard. For me, reporting isn’t just about delivering the news — it’s about building trust and shining a light on what matters most to Texans.